US nears record tornado year; meteorologists don't know why
WASHINGTON — Another week, another rumbling train of tornadoes that obliterates entire city blocks, smashing homes to their foundations and killing people even as they cower in their basements.
With the year not even half done, 2008 is already the deadliest tornado year in the United States since 1998 and seems on track to break the U.S. record for the number of twisters in a year, according to the National Weather Service. Also, this year's storms seem to be unusually powerful.
But like someone who has lost all his worldly possessions to a whirlwind, meteorologists cannot explain exactly why this is happening.
"There are active years and we don't particularly understand why," said research meteorologist Harold Brooks at the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Okla.
Over the weekend, an extraordinarily powerful twister ripped apart Parkersburg, Iowa, destroying 288 homes in the town of about 1,000 residents, said Gov. Chet Culver. At least four people were killed there. Among the buildings destroyed were City Hall, the high school, and the lone grocery store and gas station. Some of those killed were in basements.
The brutal numbers for the U.S. so far this year: at least 110 dead, 30 killer tornadoes and a preliminary count of 1,191 twisters (which, after duplicate sightings are removed, is likely to go down to around 800). The record for the most tornadoes in a year is 1,817 in 2004. In the past 10 years, the average number of tornadoes has been 1,254.
"Right now we're on track to break all previous counts through the end of the year," said warning meteorologist Greg Carbin at the Storm Prediction Center, also in Norman.
And it's not just more storms. The strongest of those storms — those in the 136-to-200 mph range — have been more prevalent than normal, and lately they seem to be hitting populated areas more, he said. At least 22 tornadoes this year have been in the top part of the new Enhanced Fujita scale, rating a 3 (for "severe") or a 4 ("devastating") on the 1-to-5 scale.
The twister that devastated Parkersburg was a 5 — the first in the U.S. since a tornado nearly obliterated Greensburg, Kan., just over a year ago. The Parkersburg tornado was the strongest to hit Iowa in 32 years.
So far, more than 50 of the deaths this year have been in mobile homes, the wrong place to be during a tornado. They have been a factor in nearly half of all tornado fatalities in recent years.
And if that's not bad enough, computer models show that the conditions that make tornadoes ripe are going to stick around Tornado Alley for about another week, according to Brooks.
The nagging question is why.
Global warming cannot really explain what is happening, Carbin said. While higher temperatures could increase the number of thunderstorms, which are needed to trigger tornadoes, they also would tend to push the storm systems too far north to form some twisters, he said.
La Nina, the cooling of parts of the Central Pacific that is the flip side El Nino, was a factor in the increased activity earlier this year — especially in February, a record month for tornado activity — but it can't explain what is happening now, according to Carbin.
Carbin explained the most recent tornadoes with just one word: "May." May is typically the busiest tornado month of the year.
A short-term answer is that the nation's heartland is stuck in a tornado rut with usually temporary weather conditions that can lead to tornadoes parked over the Plains, said Adam Houston, a professor of meteorology at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Cooler air at high altitudes and warmer moist air coming from the Gulf of Mexico are combining and settling over the region.
"You get day after day of severe weather and day after day of tornadoes until the pattern changes," Houston said.
But why that happens, Houston doesn't know. While scientists can forecast hurricane seasons, predicting their land-bound cousins is much harder, Brooks said. While tornadoes, like hurricanes, rely on large-scale weather phenomena, the crucial triggers are extremely local weather conditions.
On top of that, tornadoes have a "Goldilocks" issue. To make a tornado, the conditions have to be just right. Too much or too little of one ingredient and there is no tornado. For example, wind shear — when upper and lower winds are at different speeds or coming from different directions — is crucial to create a funnel cloud. Too little and there is no spin. Too much and the tornado falls apart.
And tornadoes form most often in late afternoon, between 5 and 9 p.m., so if a thunderstorm starts up early in the morning, it's far less likely to throw off a tornado, Brooks said.
As for why so many people are getting killed, Brooks suggests thinking of the landscape as a dartboard: "We're throwing more darts and throwing bigger darts than normal."
More people are living in mobile homes in the past few decades, and that has shown up in tornado fatality statistics. In 1970, about one-quarter of all tornado deaths were in mobile homes; now it's about half, Brooks said. In 1970, Census data showed that 3 percent of the U.S. population lived in mobile homes; now it is 7.6 percent, with a higher rate in the Southeast and other parts of Tornado Alley, such as Oklahoma, Brooks said.
But as deadly as this year has been, it used to be far worse in the United States. In 1925, tornadoes killed 794 people. From 1916 to 1936, tornadoes killed an average of nearly 280 Americans a year. That's because tornado warnings were not as good, people couldn't hear them and housing was not as sturdy, Brooks said.
Even with a busy tornado year, meteorologists are getting the word out. Of the 110 deaths so far this year, 101 came while there was a tornado watch in effect, according to the National Weather Service.
Jun 4, 2008 at 12:21 p.m.
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Even if they're fractals?
Jun 3, 2008 at 11:10 p.m.
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I'll give you that if the two systems are side by side and not end to end. However, if JPD is asking you to walk the line, equilibrium is very difficult to attain.
Jun 3, 2008 at 11:01 p.m.
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But only if you exclude the undistributed middle.
Jun 3, 2008 at 10:51 p.m.
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Yeah, its a bummer. But the good news is it takes billions of years to reach equilibrium.
Jun 3, 2008 at 10:45 p.m.
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Bummer!
Jun 3, 2008 at 10:31 p.m.
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I hate to go existential on you folks, but judging on the quality of the comments, most of you have had too much to drink tonight - and with good reason. Unfortunately, I have breaking news ... the universe is out to get you. It is called the second law of thermodynamics. It pretty much explains heat entropy, plant closings, and excess alcohol consumption. So cool it so to speak and don't drive drunk. Otherwise you will be a cold cinder in the morning.
Jun 3, 2008 at 10:20 p.m.
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do most people blog between 5-9 pm? if so, this would be more evidence that the tornadoes are a direct result of blogging. or it could be in direct relation to the Jimmie John's delivery guy, too, I suppose. what a quandry!
"And tornadoes form most often in late afternoon, between 5 and 9 p.m." from the story, of course.
(just like the comment about the nagging question was from the story...)
Jun 3, 2008 at 10:01 p.m.
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Is that a blogger?
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:58 p.m.
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We must stop Man-Bear-Pig!
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:52 p.m.
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you're right, whatdidyousay. and to be quite honest, the only boat I want to be in is one with either the Captain or the Colonel...or with Brandy, I suppose... ;)
and I'm writing Hillary in on my ballot. yeah, it might be a waste of a vote, but I MUST vote with my conscience. Hey, maybe she'll win by write-ins.
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:45 p.m.
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I wouldn't say that Captain Morgan and Colonel Bacardi are diametrically opposed.
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:35 p.m.
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hey, I'm not picky. either/or...
or brandy
or, heck, even sober, I will make the nagging questions stop...
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:16 p.m.
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Captain Morgan or Colonel Bacardi?
Jun 3, 2008 at 9:05 p.m.
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"The nagging question is why."
And thankfully, no more nagging. All it takes is a smart woman, and POOF! no more nagging...
Jun 3, 2008 at 8:33 p.m.
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Finally, an explanation.
Jun 3, 2008 at 8:20 p.m.
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I think I am a little more "qualified" than Al Gore to comment on the tornadoes.
That said, I think there are more tornadoes now because of all of the air current stirred up from "fast fingers". Think about it: worldwide bloggers "talking" about politics, sports, drunk drivers, sex and yes, tornadoes. Pointless chatter by people who are desperate to get their comments posted before someone chimes in with an opposing view...and then again AFTER someone chimes in with an opposing view...all of that air movement with no where to go but in circles...
Or maybe it's just Jimmie John's delivery guy.
Jun 3, 2008 at 7:08 p.m.
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The problem isn’t global warming. The problem is all the hot air coming out of Al Gore, mixing with the cool air from the Global Cooling problem (all those “scientists” who think there’s Global Warming now used to think there was Global Cooling – beware the Global Lukewarming crisis, now looming). These two air masses create an unstable area, which generates the tornados. Look out Dorothy, Al’s talking again!!!
Jun 3, 2008 at 6:45 p.m.
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Oh, for Pete's sake! I leave this thread for a day or so and you children just couldn't resist making a nasty mess out of one of the few blogs that was entertaining and humorous.
You all can just go to bed without supper now, and I'll send those wicked witches into your room to keep you company! *Rolls eyes*
Oh, yes, the topic at hand. Oh no! The sky is *literally* falling!
"Surrender, Dorothy!"
Jun 3, 2008 at 6:27 p.m.
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now...everyone put your weapons away. I'll try to be nice.
Jun 3, 2008 at 6:26 p.m.
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Yikes!! is all I can say. Sorry gazettefan for this um...chaos...all because of a silly post that meant nothing in the big picture. Sorry, whatdidyousay, if I offended you...I was trying to be nominated for a public office, that I think you would agree would NOT be a good career move for me. *heavy sigh*
Jun 3, 2008 at 12:20 p.m.
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I DIDN'T request that your next to last post be dumped.
It's more like the priests should be chucked.
Jun 2, 2008 at 10:59 p.m.
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What the ....!!!
OK, pal, it's you and me.
Syntactal nunchucks at 50 paces!!!
Jun 2, 2008 at 6:53 a.m.
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Yes. Twice!
Jun 1, 2008 at 11:52 p.m.
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So many grammar aficionados on these boards!
Did I spell aficionado right?
Jun 1, 2008 at 6:54 p.m.
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Whatdidyousay, you've downsized the cause of your complaint from a slam to a jab, making your insults (thanks on sp) toward ms...sassy even less justified.
Look at the two posts again: it's a matter of proportion.
Your concern for fairness is appreciated. You could have shown us the way by taking the high road.
Also, you could've used a couple of commas in your last sentence:
"Now you be nice, if you want to, and have a nice day." ;-)
Jun 1, 2008 at 11:16 a.m.
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What's your problem, Whatdidyousay?!!! So what if you didn't post here. ms...sassy only spoke about a possible debate with you about something.
No justification for your rude and ignorant insultes.
BE NICE!!!
May 29, 2008 at 9:48 p.m.
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Who?!
May 29, 2008 at 5:54 p.m.
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pay no attention to the man behind the curtain...
May 29, 2008 at 5:53 p.m.
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hey. I was NEVER married to you, Seabee!
May 29, 2008 at 5:29 p.m.
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The good witch of the south was actually a wicked witch, better known as my ex-wife.
May 29, 2008 at 4:07 p.m.
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Well, I know that the Good Witch of the North was named Glinda, perhaps she has a sister, Good Witch of the South.
Perhaps the South Witch was named "Blew-Winda"
May 29, 2008 at 3:39 p.m.
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"We have cows"
May 29, 2008 at 1:47 p.m.
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We need a gov't funded study to look for that possible witch of the south, be she good or wicked.............
May 29, 2008 at 1:45 p.m.
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Absolutely BRILLIANT, jvlparkergrd!!!
*
Have you contacted the Nobel Prize people?
*
I think you definitely could get one for that!!
May 29, 2008 at 1:44 p.m.
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Nancy Grace.
May 29, 2008 at 1:19 p.m.
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I'm thinkin', maybe the Good Witch of the North is behind this increase of tornadoes. After all, she wants to "off" those two mean sisters, the Wicked Witch of the East and the Wicked Witch of the West. Just my opinion.
Oh, by the way, was there ever a Good (or Wicked) Witch of the South? Maybe she's in on it too.......
May 29, 2008 at 12:47 p.m.
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mirandadee, on behalf of all of us, you're welcome.
May 29, 2008 at 8:35 a.m.
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you people are hilarious. im glad i got a good laugh this morning. thanks!
May 29, 2008 at 7:14 a.m.
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I'm putting sandbags on the roof of my double-wide.
May 29, 2008 at 12:50 a.m.
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Somebody call Al Gore! I just spotted Man-bear-pig!lol
May 29, 2008 at 12:10 a.m.
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Of course this is because of Man-Made Global Warming! We inconsiderate humans are causing the temperature on Jupiter and Mars to increase too...
May 29, 2008 at 12:01 a.m.
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No doubt this will be chalked up to the global warming/climate change; aka global wealth redistribution scam.
May 28, 2008 at 11:46 p.m.
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After all, the article states: "More people are living in mobile homes in the past few decades, and that has shown up in tornado fatality statistics. In 1970, about one-quarter of all tornado deaths were in mobile homes; now it's about half, Brooks said. In 1970, Census data showed that 3 percent of the U.S. population lived in mobile homes; now it is 7.6 percent..."
I THINK WE MAY BE ON TO SOMETHING!!! And I'm "shouting" cuz I'm excited...
May 28, 2008 at 11:43 p.m.
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maybe there are more tornadoes in an attempt to rid America of the Jerry Springer show guest list, anybody ever think of that?!
May 28, 2008 at 11:09 p.m.
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Wait, tornados are like hurricanes over land!
Uh oh, there go the gas prices again
May 28, 2008 at 11:07 p.m.
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Yes, I don't think they can go back very far for a good sample, Zoom.
We need a cure for PTSD: Pest Talky Springer Disorder.
May 28, 2008 at 10:39 p.m.
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The article is pointless. At the end, it reads that "it used to be worse". So what's the big deal? Isn't it within the realm of possibility that this weather is not a statistical anomoly?
How long have we even been counting tornadoes? A tiny sliver of time in the history of the earth.
May 28, 2008 at 10:04 p.m.
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do I dare say, "knock on wood" about the click it or ticket? I got in big trouble the last time I said it...
yeah, Springer showed all of the "white trash" in America that it was "normal" to act like that...*HEAVY sigh*
I don't think that's what advocates of human services have in mind when they say things like, "you are not alone" and "I understand"...
ahhh therapy...
gazettefan, I can hear the smoke coming out of your ears from here... :)
May 28, 2008 at 9:47 p.m.
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Yes, by all means, buckle up. Click It or Ticket! Don't help that mean ol' universe out.
Springer ruined America!
May 28, 2008 at 9:39 p.m.
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and make sure the ride has had a quality/safety inspection recently, if at all possible...
in other words, do what you can to keep yourself and others safe...
does that sound like the end of a bad Jerry Springer show, or what?!
May 28, 2008 at 9:36 p.m.
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We do not disagree, garyprimer.
May 28, 2008 at 9:32 p.m.
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Your existential bearings might tell you that the universe has already killed all of us. We just haven't gotten there yet. As we travel through space-time there is a point for each and everyone of us where it is lights out. All we can do is to enjoy the ride. Have a nice day everybody!
May 28, 2008 at 9:17 p.m.
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Well, sassy, my existential bearings tell me it's just another example of how every square inch of the universe is out to kill us.
It's only good luck that keeps it from succeeding every time. But that's just me. Don't get the wrong idea, I struggle to keep a good thought.
May 28, 2008 at 9:09 p.m.
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LOL. Good One, gazettefan! Trouble is, I would probably have to face someone like Whatdidyousay in a debate about something like how global warming is some democrat bunk to get more money out of the republicans pockets, or something...read the other posts on McCain's Victory...I want to give him the V-8 smack. Another reason I shouldn't run for office, huh?
So what is the explanation for this weather craziness???
May 28, 2008 at 8:53 p.m.
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Well, sassy, then maybe you should run for public office.
May 28, 2008 at 8:34 p.m.
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well, I think God is pretty angry with us (again). There are verses in the Bible that no one will know the day or the hour; however, there will be wars, threats of wars, unexplainable natural disasters and earthquakes...it's an interesting read...and I am fairly confident that God is the only one around who has kept His word.
I realize this post has nothing to do with meteorology, but I agree, I'd like to have a job where I can be wrong more than 50% and still be employed. ;}
May 28, 2008 at 4:21 p.m.
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blah blah blah blah. blah blah
May 28, 2008 at 2:30 p.m.
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proartist.......You can't tell these people anything! They still believe that an invisible man in the sky created the universe.
You are right on the money.
May 28, 2008 at 9 a.m.
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Oh,please...
May 28, 2008 at 8:25 a.m.
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Don't "blame the messenger". Gore has only used contemporary media tools to publicize the real science of a global emergency so it is FINALLY understood even by those who first denied it decades ago. Buzz-words like junk-science promoted for political purposes only continue a myth that belies the fact that all reputable and peer-reviewed scientists are in agreement. It also continues the ever slipperier slope of leaving a devastated world to future generations.
May 28, 2008 at 7:19 a.m.
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I feel another Al Gore movie coming on and a junk science pile on.
May 28, 2008 at 6:25 a.m.
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I would love to have a job where I could be that much incorrect about what I do and still have a job.
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