Analysis: To keep his job, Obama needs more jobs
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WASHINGTON President Barack Obama cannot escape one giant vulnerability as he bids to keep his job: Millions of voters still don't have one.
Suddenly, the snapshot of the American economy is depressing again.
Job creation is down. So is consumer confidence. And homes sales, auto sales, construction spending, manufacturing expansion.
The brutal month of May was a reminder of the economy's fragility and the risks for an incumbent president.
Nothing that Obama oversees, not even a success as dramatic as finding and killing Osama bin Laden, will matter as much as his handling of the economy. It is the dominant driver of voter behavior. People hold their president accountable if they can't find work in the richest country in the world.
The weakening recovery is testing the entire foundation of Obama's optimistic economic message, that the nation is getting stronger all the time. As much as the White House says it never dwells on any single jobs report, and Obama never even mentioned the troubling one released Friday, the stakes get higher by the month.
A finally forming field of Republican presidential competitors is maneuvering into the space for the public's attention with this message: Obama has failed.
Election Day 2012 is 17 months away, and Obama's campaign knows incremental job growth won't do. The unemployment rate is 9.1 percent. If it stays anywhere near there, Obama will face re-election with a higher jobless rate than any other post-war president.
In his favor, Obama still has the loudest voice to sell his message that the longer term trends, including job growth every month, are good.
Nearly halfway through a year dominated by foreign events mostly outside his control, he plans to build his next few months around economic events.
So what comes next will be a summer when both sides select the economic facts that best suit their case. It will play against a backdrop of trying to cut a massive deficit while letting the nation borrow more so it doesn't default.
As Obama pushes his economic agenda, his re-election chances bank on more than job growth. They also depend on how well he can remind people that he inherited a recession and that compared with the early days of 2009, the country is in a better place.
"This economy took a big hit," Obama said Friday in Ohio, a pivotal 2012 state. "You know, it's just like if you had a bad illness, if you got hit by a truck, it's going to take a while for you to mend. And that's what's happened to our economy. It's taking a while to mend."
Is progress enough to convince people that he deserves a second term?
If so, he can't afford many setbacks like the new jobs report. Employers in May added just 54,000 jobs, the fewest in eight months. Almost 14 million people are jobless. Analysts suggested the economy could improve this year, but the recovery could be weak for months.
"There are always going to be bumps on the road to recovery," Obama said.
The Republicans hoping to unseat him pounced.
—Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney: "President Obama has failed to pull us out of this economic downturn.
—Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty: "Obama's failure to address the tough challenges" is clear.
—Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich: "The administration's policies are failing."
Obama's political tendency is to take the longer view. An Associated Press-GfK poll less than a month ago, for example, showed rising public optimism about the economy and his stewardship.
The election won't be just a referendum on Obama and the unemployment rate. It also will offer a choice between his economic ideas and his opponent's. Still, just as change worked for him last time, it can be used against him in 2012.
Even 8 percent unemployment, a goal once promoted by the administration, is hard to see now.
Presidents Jimmy Carter, Reagan and George H.W. Bush all faced unemployment rates higher than 7.5 percent in the final months of their re-election campaigns. Reagan won, and an important factor for him was that the jobless rate was declining at the time. Carter and Bush lost.
Obama, for now, has no reason to engage the politicians trying to win his job. He instead presents himself as the workers' champion who risked his own capital and their money in a successful bid to help Chrysler and General Motors survive and return to profitability.
"I'll tell you what. I'm going to keep betting on you," Obama told workers at a Chrysler plant in Toledo, Ohio.
And hope they'll do the same for him.
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EDITOR'S NOTE — White House Correspondent Ben Feller has covered the Bush and Obama presidencies for The Associated Press.


Jun 7, 2011 at 3:46 p.m.
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And what part of what Obummer has done in the last 27 months do you want more of if he is re=elected? Resticted oil drilling? Taken over private companies? High unemployment? Uncontrolled spending? More worthless stimulus? and on and on and on......
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:19 p.m.
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Oh my goodness, a typo! It should be "their".
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:18 p.m.
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Kaysbrew: I do not have the stomach for your party and there shenanigans.
Jun 6, 2011 at 6:21 p.m.
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Kaysbrew: I don't want to get on the herman Cain train or any of YOUR TRAINS. I don't want "to get it" as you say. I care for my fellow human beings and you don't. You are heartless, cruel, inhuman, uncaring, despicable.
I don't EVER WANT TO BE your kind of person. I would hate myself.
Jun 6, 2011 at 3:20 p.m.
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SarahB1 - Please start from the first post and read them through about the gas. The point is, since Obama took office, gas prices are over double when he started. That was simply the point.
Sorry Concerned, like some other Presidents in the past, Obama is failing. Not a Democrat or Republican argument for me right now. He is just failing.
Jun 6, 2011 at 3:17 p.m.
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOFB-2yJz...
Now you can get on the Herman Cain Train and lets FUNDEMENTALLY RESTORE America
Jun 6, 2011 at 3:15 p.m.
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Get on the Herman Cain Train and lets FUNDEMENTALLY RESTORE America
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MOFB-2yJz......
Jun 6, 2011 at 3:06 p.m.
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Again Sarah - of what?
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:43 p.m.
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Yes concernedperson - I can see how many times you address me that you don't care. Try ignoring me for once.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:41 p.m.
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Downright rotten, despicable, conniving, corruption at its' highest level, that the Republicans would even think of doing such a thing. I don't really care if it's on the other blog or not. It's rotten.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:39 p.m.
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And, just to let you know, kaysbrew, I am not the only who cares. There ALOT OF US WHO CARE.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:37 p.m.
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Yes, the truth hurts doesn't it kaysbrew? I am glad the gazette staff had the thought to put this article in the newspaper.
You naughty, naughty little Republicans. You got your hands spanked, and well deserved, I might add.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:35 p.m.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:25 p.m.
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I'm sure you had them removed since you are the only one who cares - to mention on two different articles. Truth hurts - liberals just don't have the stomach for what their party is doing.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:21 p.m.
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It's on the other story concernedperson - don't get confused
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:15 p.m.
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I know you Republicans are pathetic after reading the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article posted by the gazette staff on the other blog, trying to put impersonators on the Democratic ticket. Now that is sick.
Jun 6, 2011 at 2:13 p.m.
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Did I misspeak? So sorry. I am saying July, 2008 okay?
Kaysbrew: Why did you have two of your posts removed by gazette staff on the other blog? We you being snide again, like you Republicans are so good at doing?
Jun 6, 2011 at 11:08 a.m.
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concernedperson - The first poster on here stated that gas prices were $1.87 when Obama took office. That was Dec/Jan. You then responded to them saying they were wrong because you paid more than that in the summer. Look at a calendar.
Jun 6, 2011 at 11:01 a.m.
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concernedperson
Just conservatives sick of socialism from you and your party. LOVE IT!
Jun 6, 2011 at 10:51 a.m.
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Grandys: Just to let you know, I don't agree with the President all of the time. Just like I didn't agree with GWB all of the time.
Jun 6, 2011 at 10:48 a.m.
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Spark: It is a FACT that I paid $4.00 a gal. for gas in July, 2008 under GWB. Now, you get over it. Read further down and you will see where someone else said that gas was that high in July, 2008, too.
Jun 6, 2011 at 10:27 a.m.
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Keeping it simple. In the late 90's and until Sept 2001 there was a shortage of workers and many jobs went unfilled. After Sept 2001 the economy softened. The Bush tax cuts spurred the economy and by 2003-2006 there was again full employment.
The democrats took control of the House and Senate in 2006 and stifled many of President Bush's initiatives while enacting legislation that would cripple the economy. Obama's election in 2008 furthered the detioration of the economy.
The minions on the left have turned to blaming the economy on Bush, big business, and the rich. The minions on the left are against corporate profits, the very profits that lead to my income from investments. Many don't seem to understand that they own parts of these corporations in their retirement funds. If they were true to their beliefs they would cash in thier 401k's and hide the money in a mattress.
Jun 6, 2011 at 10:24 a.m.
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What is the optimal result for idealistic capitalism? Getting more out of less. Lower costs, increase profit. We need fewer and fewer workers. Jobs will continue to be outsourced for cheap labor, Repugs or Dems will never change that. The more capitalism increases profit and productivity, the fewer the jobs that are available. Add to that technological advance and automation which makes line workers from coal mines to factories increasingly antiquated, and you get our current predicament. Labor is not of any value in American any longer, but we still actually need to produce things. Apparently that's Obama's fault? lol.
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Now, consider that the best way to ensure that Obama is not successful in getting re-elected, is to make darn sure the economy continues to stagnate and sputter along. That, my midwest friends is part and parcel of the current Conservative tactic to win the 2012 elections. They know, just like Scotty and the Repubs did in WI, that people vote according to the balance on their checking accounts, and that is where elections are won and lost.
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Furthermore, Dems do not want to admit that the "stimulus" and subsequent "recovery" have largely been a failure. We can say that "it would have been worse without it...blah blah blah", but frankly nobody really knows, and we'll never know.
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And last, but not least, the unemployed are not a political force. They do not make campaign contributions, they don't attend rallies, and they don't form political action committees or lobby Congress. If you think, for even one moment, that the current crop of Republican't wannabees is going to be any more effective at "creating jobs" than the Dems or Obama, I have some swamp land for you to take a look at. (but I know that belief and ideology are more important that balanced views in American politics, which is why it's broken.)
Jun 6, 2011 at 10:10 a.m.
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concernedperson - Did you read my post? Yes, you may have paid that much for gas at some point, but it was under $2.00 right before Obama took office. Why are you in such denial over a simple fact? Get over it.
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:57 a.m.
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How quickly you Republicans forget that Pres. Obama DID NOT WANT to extend the Bush tax credits for the wealthy! We sure heard a lot about it on the blogs at that time. Walter Reuther is right. Pres. Obama relented, and yes, it was against his better judgment. But you Repubs. WOULD NOT NEGOTIATE. You had to have your way or you would have another temper tantrum.
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:52 a.m.
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Kaysbrew: You talk about worldwide movement. Thanks for proving my point that Repubs. want one world order.
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:50 a.m.
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Spark: I am not wrong. The gas receipts prove it.
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:43 a.m.
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Dusty, are you talking about the same magical powers that were ascribed Bush?
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:17 a.m.
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http://gazettextra.com/photos/2011/jun/0...
Jun 6, 2011 at 9:06 a.m.
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ezoner: my point is that I wish folks would stop ascribing magical powers to President Obama. Businesses add workers when demand for their goods and services increases. Obama has supported the extension of tax cuts during this recession (which was roaring when Obama took office, despite the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy). He has supported the first-time home buyers credit. He has supported a payroll tax holiday. All of these tax cuts have helped increased the budget deficit and are not working to create more jobs.
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:29 a.m.
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Your right dusty -- the government creates the appropriate environment for business to create jobs....... Unless of course they are trying to create government jobs.....
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:26 a.m.
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Hey West..... If Bush was still in office the Liberals would be posting links to stories about how he was at his ranch or reading a book to school children and not doing his job. How soon people forget.
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:23 a.m.
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Another fine day on the posting boards! Geez I love you guys!
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:12 a.m.
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Before all you right-wingers line up to trash the President again about jobs, don't forget your mantra: "the government doesn't create jobs."
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:11 a.m.
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Than in addition to you being wrong, your three traveling partners are also wrong. You may have payed close to that during one time, but right before he took office it was under $2.00. FACT.
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http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/wate...
http://blogs.internetautoguide.com/63604...
Jun 6, 2011 at 8:02 a.m.
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Walter -- you obviously dont understand economics.... You cannot merely support the tax cuts, there were a number of other dynamics. Including, oil prices, arab summer, increased government regulation on business, etc... it all has an impact. SO if you stimulate on the right and restrict on t he left, you get a stagnant response.
We need Trump to stand in front of him and say -- "YOUR FIRED".
Jun 6, 2011 at 6:38 a.m.
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First was the 2010 elections in America, England, Canada and now Portugal knows that conservatives will lead the way. Portugals social Democrats to merge with conservatives ousting the Socialists. Yet Obama and his fringe socialist followers are heading in the wrong direction, proving again that America will vote him out in 2012 following the world wide movement. Every policy, wrong choice, wrong direction.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-1...
Jun 6, 2011 at 5:50 a.m.
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Walter..I am not refuting why the gas price was lower when Obama took office. I'm just saying Shopiere proved it wasn't the $4 gallon concerned said it was--not even half that. Concerned gets confused sometimes.
Jun 6, 2011 at 4:42 a.m.
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" As the effects of George Bush's economic policies really started to do their damage "
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Which policy contributed to which damage walter?
Jun 5, 2011 at 8:43 p.m.
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President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts against his better judgement. He said over and over that those tax cuts were not stimulating job growth, but Republicans held unemployment benefits hostage over those tax cuts claiming the cuts were imperative to job growth. Obama relented and the Republicans got their tax cuts. Now that job growth hasn't increased fast enough those same Republicans are going to try to pin the blame on the President. We should all realize that this is politics. If job growth had skyrocketed, Republicans would be praising those tax cuts. Since job growth hasn't skyrocketed they have to divert attention away from the ineffectiveness of the tax cuts by blaming the President. There is a difference between campaigning and the truth.
Jun 5, 2011 at 8:34 p.m.
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donnaw,
As I already posted, the low gas prices when Obama took office were due to the downturn in the economy lowering demand for gasoline which in turn drove gas prices down. The steady increase in gas prices since then is indicative of an improving economy coupled with over-speculation.
Jun 5, 2011 at 7:26 p.m.
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Ok concerned, shopiere has posted what gas cost per gallon when Obama took office... Now what do you say?
Jun 5, 2011 at 6:13 p.m.
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So, exactly WHEN is the current administration going to take ownership? At least Congress gave him a smack down on Libya the other day, he acts like a spoiled brat.
Jun 5, 2011 at 6:02 p.m.
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I like how the wacky repubs need to post stories about Obama eating chili dogs trying to make some absurd point. The man is in better shape than most American's I know, so i think he can afford a few chili dogs.
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And for the last time, Obama nor his policies are responsible for the price you pay for gas at the pump. It's the morons who can't see the forest for the trees that are dragging this country through the gutter.
Jun 5, 2011 at 6:01 p.m.
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Unfortunatly, the Kenyan is a big of a warmonger as was the Bush regime. Obama has expanded the war in the Mideast now with the participation in the invasion of yet another sovereign nation, libya. These wars without end are a huge drain on the economy.
The title of the article is about jobs. There wont be all that many. They have been shipped overseas so that the rich can enjoy larger profits.
Jun 5, 2011 at 5:53 p.m.
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Here is the price of gasoline in January 2009, the month Obama took office.
http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/200...
Jun 5, 2011 at 5:47 p.m.
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Here is the price of gasoline in January 2008;
http://news.consumerreports.org/cars/200...
Jun 5, 2011 at 5:45 p.m.
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A BOLD move..........
President Obama wolfs down TWO chili dogs and fries... the day after his wife unveils new dietary guide
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-...
Jun 5, 2011 at 4:45 p.m.
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Foolish people say and believe foolish things.
"I wouldn't say this President is inexerienced." What would you say?
"For all the GW-BS left for President Obama to deal with, I would see he is doing a tremendous job." I wish I was getting my salary review from you.
"The country has a revenue problem, partly due in fact to GWB. Hard to remember but the economy took a dive after 9/11-the tax cuts revived it until the Dems took over the Congress in 06.
Jun 5, 2011 at 4:42 p.m.
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Whzbng: Do you have relatives who lived during the Great Depression? If you don't, you need to consult with someone who lived during that time. You will then begin to realize what the absolute truth is and I am sure you will change your mind on a few things. Our country is looking at more than a double digit recession unless the Repubs. get themselves under control. We are looking at the next Great Depression right in the eyball.
Jun 5, 2011 at 4:39 p.m.
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WalterReuther has given CORRECT INFORMATION.
Jun 5, 2011 at 4:38 p.m.
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whzbng: The economy was not doing just fine under Bush. Not the economy in the world that I live in.
Jun 5, 2011 at 4:35 p.m.
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In July of 2008 I took a vacation and I paid $4.00 per gallon. No question about it. And I had 3 other people with me on this vacation who say the same thing.
Jun 5, 2011 at 3:57 p.m.
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The extreme drop in gas prices was actually due to the poor shape of the economy at the time. As the effects of George Bush's economic policies really started to do their damage and the mortgage market was falling apart, the demand for gasoline fell sharply which led to the drastic drop in prices. In July, 2008 the average gallon of gas cost $4.11 by late October it had fallen to $2.78/gallon and continued to fall. The bittersweet combination of economic improvement and irresponsible speculation is what has brought the prices back up near those peak levels seen last in the summer of '08. So, to be clear it certainly wasn't anything positive that was driving gas prices down in late 2008. The prices fell due to sagging demand caused by the rapidly weakening economy.
Jun 5, 2011 at 3:57 p.m.
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Concerned, you need to get your facts straight. Gas was $1.87 a gallon in Jan of 08. Obama called the recession over in June of 09. Here we are in June of 11 and headed into a double dip recession. You must not get the Janesville Gazette or you would see several pages of forclosures weekly. Very few adds for employment. Yet liberals are protesting not to make any cuts in spending. As I recall the economy was doing just fine under Bush until the Dems took control of Congress. I think Nancy Pelosi bears most of the blame not Bush. Like it or not tax cuts do help big business prosper so more hiring can be done.
Jun 5, 2011 at 3:34 p.m.
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concerned-You are wrong. We had this discussion before. Gas was under 1.80 when Obama took office. Look it up.
Jun 5, 2011 at 3:09 p.m.
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The truth is some Republicans don't understand what really sad shape our country was in before Obama took over. Pres. Obama has done incredibly well considering all of that.
Now, if Republicans want to continue on their merry way (such as the Paul Ryan plan), you will see another recession, or maybe even a depression. Is that what you want? You know what, I think Republicans wouldn't even mind a depression if it would hurt Pres. Obama. But, if they continue on with their ridiculous Ryan plan, it will hurt eveyone. And there's nothing Christian about that at all! Paul Ryan's Ayn Rand theory of every man for himself does not set well with most Americans.
Jun 5, 2011 at 2:39 p.m.
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I was replying to concerned
Jun 5, 2011 at 2:38 p.m.
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I agree, but we can't afford what this ineffective, goof-off, funds-misappropriating "president" does either.
About the ONLY thing he's accomplished in 3 years is assisting in getting bin laden and a couple others.
Jun 5, 2011 at 2:37 p.m.
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For all the GW-BS left for President Obama to deal with, I would see he is doing a tremendous job. I'd even say miraculous. After Bush bankrupted this great nation, President Obama has overseen a slow but steady recovery. 15 months of private sector job growth is impressive considering what we have come out of. May was a bump in the road. Much slower job growth than had been hoped for, but the American people aren't spending like they used to, and they won't be for some time if ever again. The economy has fundamentally changed and Obama is presiding over something completely new. Expecting to see things ever go back to the way they were before the recession is simply unreasonable. Many people have changed their priorities in life. Luxuries have been cut out of many people's lives for good no matter how much better things might get.
Jun 5, 2011 at 1:45 p.m.
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The country has a revenue problem, partly due in fact to GWB. GWB is the worst president ever.
Our country cannot afford to keep giving tax breaks to the ultra wealthy and corporations, which is the Ryan plan. Ryan just gives all the tax breaks to insurance companies, and let's them make MORE PROFITS, all on the backs of the poor and the working class, and middle class citizens in America.
Jun 5, 2011 at 1:02 p.m.
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Few dispute that Bush was terrible, but this one is no better, just different.
Jun 5, 2011 at 12:50 p.m.
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Whzbng: I wouldn't say this President is inexperienced. He inherited the worst problems ever in the history of our nation.
Now, under the Bush presidency, two wars were started. Bush did not in any way try to pay for these wars, like previous presidents in history have done. Instead, Bush gave tax breaks which the country could not afford. This is where many of the problems our nation has came from. Mr. Bush should have looked to previous history and what presidents before him had done. Mr. Bush thought he could create a war, and THEN NOT PAY FOR IT. Thank God, we got President Obama when we did. He is not a bad president, as many are trying to portray him as.
Jun 5, 2011 at 12:35 p.m.
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Whzbng: You are wrong. I remember the summer of 2008 taking a trip and paying around $4.00 a gallon for gas. This was under GWB's presidency.
Jun 5, 2011 at 12:35 p.m.
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Whzbng: You are wrong. I remember the summer of 2008 taking a trip and paying around $4.00 a gallon for gas. This was under GWB's presidency.
Jun 5, 2011 at 12:22 p.m.
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Please Please Please can we go back to old Republican policies like huge cuts in corporate taxes and taxes on the wealthy so they can stimulate job growth. It's worked so well so far. Then can we Please Please Please bring in new Republican ideas like dismantling Medicare so the country might get out of debt but puts individuals under huge piles of personal debt as they have to pay for their parents health care after the puny little voucher money runs out. Please Please Please can we get away from these Democrtatic policies that have led to 15 straight months of private sector job growth that has produced 2.1 million jobs? We all know that improvement isn't actually improvement unless a Republican is in the Oval Office.
Jun 5, 2011 at 12:07 p.m.
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"to keep his job, Obama needs more jobs"
WRONG
To keep his job, Obama needs more money to buy more votes..He needs to find more ways to steal some more of it from American taxpayers...Just like any politician,THAT is how he will keep his job.
Jun 5, 2011 at 11:29 a.m.
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Unemployment was 7.5% and gas was $1.87 a gallon when Obummer took office. Food prices have gone up quite a lot also since then. I see no reason to re elect this president. His in-experience and socialist theory do not an economy grow. Trillions spent with no results only debt as far as we can see. Unconstrained entitlement spending is a threat to the economy as a larger portion of the national budget goes to service that debt. We are in this from the Local level, county level, state level and national level. Spending must be cut everywhere.
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