Signs of the times? Local indicators point to improving economy
By the numbers
40
Number of new investments, expansions and start-ups in Rock County since Jan. 1, 2010
$604 million
Combined value of those capital investments
2,039
New jobs estimated at full operation of expansions and start-ups
10,121
Jobs retained by existing businesses with capital projects
32
Vacant industrial properties between 2008 and 2010, excluding the General Motors plant in Janesville
17
Properties among those 32 that are now between 80 percent and 100 percent occupied
41
Percentage reduction in available square footage in those 32 buildings
Source: Rock County 5.0, Rock Ready Index
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JANESVILLE — Rock County's economy recently closed the book on its best quarter in more than two years, a sign that two development officials said is more than encouraging.
Since 2010, The Gazette has published a quarterly dashboard of seven indicators to provide an economic snapshot over time. The data set now includes 10 quarters dating to April 2010.
The most recent covers the third quarter—July through September—of this year.
Figures indicate more people are buying and selling homes and cars. More of them are working, and more are keeping creditors at bay.
For the first time in the dashboard's history, all seven indicators are positive when compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
In fact, new vehicle registrations and the average prices of homes sold were at their highest in 10 quarters. Foreclosure filings were at their lowest.
In addition, retail sales and the number of homes sold posted their best third quarters in the history of the dashboard. For comparable quarters, bankruptcy filings and the local unemployment rate reached their lowest levels.
"It's a really good thing when these indicators consistently show movement in the same, positive direction," said James Otterstein, Rock County's economic development manager.
Otterstein and Rock County 5.0 compile their own dashboard, the Rock Ready Index, which includes quarterly data on the workforce, real estate, sales activity and project announcements.
That index shows industrial real estate vacancies are down considerably, businesses are spending money on fixed asset and human capital needs, there's an increased demand for training services, utility meter readings are stable to increasing and the local economic development pipeline is filled with higher quality, value-added projects, he said.
"Right, wrong or indifferent, these statistics are subject to personal positions or points of view," Otterstein said. "Folks that are gainfully employed or financially stable will undoubtedly have a different point of view regarding these indicators than folks that are struggling to find suitable work or to make ends meets."
John Beckord, president of Forward Janesville, said the recent numbers are encouraging, but it's difficult for many people to believe in an improving economy until they see a clear trend.
"The depth of the recession and the multiple business closures we experienced had a very strong impact on expectations," Beckord said. "Hopefully, these stronger numbers are starting to change attitudes in a positive way."
Beckord said business investment is a strong leading indicator of future consumer spending.
"The rationale is that today's sophisticated businesses often can gauge future demand before policymakers can implement changes, which often take months to kick in due to natural policy lags," he said. "I think the over $600 million in new business investment in Rock County since January 2010 is resulting in more jobs, more income and more consumption."
Interest rates, Beckord said, are not likely to get more favorable, and consumer demand remains strong.
He said, however, that several issues could upset the apple cart and cause businesses and consumers to pull back on their spending.
Those include failing economies in Europe, a dramatic slowing of the Chinese economy, the so-called fiscal cliff looming over the federal government and the markets by the end of the year, and the unknown tipping point when massive federal debt triggers higher borrowing costs for the federal government.
"Any one or a combination of the these could cause a precipitous drop in confidence," Beckord said.
Otterstein said nearly all indicators point to an improving local economy.
"Anytime that you can measure and report local economic trends moving in the same positive direction—particularly if there is either stability or consistency—it demonstrates from an aggregate economic perspective that things are improving," he said.
Otterstein said the recent numbers suggest consumer confidence is improving. To a lesser extent, so is business confidence, he said.
"When reflecting back upon those previous quarters where most of the indicators were moving in the wrong direction, one could surmise that stability and confidence were definitely absent," Otterstein said.
When people feel more confident about their employment, they're more likely to spend a higher percentage of their income on big-ticket items such as homes or cars, he said. In addition, they're more comfortable spending disposal income on things they've shied away from, such as dining out.
On the business side, Otterstein said companies that survived the Great Recession used cost-saving measurements that still are applicable.
"These lean approaches have enabled firms to not only control costs but increase profitability," he said, adding that those profits have allowed companies to acquire competitors and expand in Rock County.
Those profits, he said, take the place of bank financing to grow market share, develop new products, pay for equipment or fund new operations.
Oct 27, 2012 at 5:49 p.m.
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Only ahead 723000 jobs since he took office, Not the 5 million they like to spout. That is the difference between jobs lost and current emploment #s.
Oct 27, 2012 at 5:36 p.m.
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carlitosway
Seriously, what is WRONG with you?
Oct 27, 2012 at 5:10 p.m.
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factsforyou, here's one -- the economy tanked under Bush, with the peak of job losses in December 2008. Since Obama took office job losses have reversed and we have experienced 31 months of job creation, with over 5 million private-sector jobs created.
http://www.dpcc.senate.gov/?p=job_creati...
http://www.dc37.net/news/pep/9_2012/obam...
http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/27/news/eco...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/article...
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Then again, you know that -- you probably get paid every time you post. That's one of those 5 million jobs!
Oct 24, 2012 at 1:24 a.m.
Oct 23, 2012 at 6:50 a.m.
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"Obama In Command..."
http://www.cnn.com/2012/10/23/opinion/op...
Oct 23, 2012 at 1:21 a.m.
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Fact-check on the last debate. It seems Romney didn't get many facts right. Mitt can always try again in 2016 when he finds more of his tax returns.
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/polit...
Oct 22, 2012 at 10:26 p.m.
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"Figures indicate more people are buying and selling homes and cars. More of them are working, and more are keeping creditors at bay."
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That's not what the far right wing wackos want you to think. They say, listen to us, the ones with romnesia....
Oct 22, 2012 at 7:32 p.m.
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factsforyou, ugh!
What was the reaction of the people of Lybia(sp?) after the US Ambassador was killed?
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Never would have happened under an isolationist like GW.
Oct 22, 2012 at 5:01 p.m.
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Everybody sees color, gender or class, but it can't make a difference if we want grow as a society. The remark that Tommy Thompson's son made about sending Obama back to Chicago or Kenya and the woman in the room that remarked she would start to take donations for the trip back to Kenya was highly offensive. That kind of remark reflects on the GOP. Along with the other fundraiser, where Rommney was caught on tape saying 47% of Americans consider themselves victims, also a reflection of the GOP. I am an independent and I could not vote for any candidate that would make that type of remark.It has more meaning when it's said behind closed doors to his peers.
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:54 p.m.
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"The most troubling aspect of Romney’s candidacy is that we still don’t know what his principles are. Is he the relatively moderate Republican who was governor of Massachusetts, the “severely conservative” one on display in the GOP primaries or the more reasonable-sounding fellow who reappeared at the presidential debates? His modulating positions on his own tax plan, healthcare reform, financial regulation, Medicare, immigration and the national safety net add to the impression that the only thing he really stands for is his own election."
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/edit...
From the conservative LA Times. If you post no links, you are just giving your opinion, one in 320 million.
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:50 p.m.
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Politics aside, some business people must think Janesville is turning around. There is an investment in indoor tennis and fitness center coming to Janesville with expectations of being open by February. I would guess you would not do that in a dying city.
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:37 p.m.
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"Just so we’re all clear on who the biggest liars are. And, let’s not forget, Politifact is, by and large, considered right-leaning"
http://www.eclectablog.com/2012/10/polit...
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:32 p.m.
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The left only sees it in color, class, gender, etc. It's their self serving point of view-
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:30 p.m.
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"From the start of the first debate, Romney has almost seemed liberated, spouting line after line of breathless, ecstatic inventions – things that are, if not lies exactly, at the very least just simply made up out of thin air, and seemingly on the spot, too. The business about the $25,000 "bucket" of deductions which he prefaced, with seemingly half of America watching, with the phrase, "Let's pick a number": awesome. Then there was the jobs plan that creates 12 million jobs, another number seemingly plucked out of the ether: it turned out that when asked to justify the number, the Romney campaign cited three studies, none of which came anywhere near justifying claims of a 12 million-job increase."
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blo...
Oct 22, 2012 at 4:09 p.m.
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Lester: Personally, I found your comment extremely raciest. But thank you, you just confirmed that the KKK is alive and well masquerading as the GOP.
Oct 22, 2012 at 4 p.m.
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Lester aka Robot_Lord aka DeGryse, I had decided to omit this tidbit from my original comment, but since you were so entertained by Obama being ranked 14th, I've reconsidered that decision: "They also gave an interim assessment of Barack Obama, but his unfinished presidency was not included in the survey (had he been included, he would have attained eighth place overall)." [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_... ]
Oct 22, 2012 at 3:40 p.m.
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And I suppose this to has to do because of the R & R regime??????!!!!!!
Oct 22, 2012 at 12:44 p.m.
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When I see more money in my pocket & taxes going down I might believe it.
Oct 22, 2012 at 12:42 p.m.
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I would love the opportunity to give Walker, or anyone else, credit for a growing economy, something Republicans will NEVER do for Obama, regardless of the facts.
Oct 21, 2012 at 11:39 p.m.
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factsforyou, besides the other half-truths and lies in your rant, the line "OBAMA OVERTAKES CARTER AS THE WORST PRESIDENT IN US HISTORY," is quite far from what scholars and experts on the subject feel. Then again, I don't hold you to the same standard that I hold the scholars and experts that participated in the research as you obviously are neither.
In an aggregation of polls, Obama ties for 14th place, ahead of Reagan, Clinton, George W. Bush, Ford and many others. Carter comes in 27th, ahead of George W. Bush and many others. [ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Historical_... ]
Oct 21, 2012 at 11:38 p.m.
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Where to start with factsforyou...I'll take these for starters.
factsforyou said, "Hasnt passed a budget in 3 years ( 1st pres in history to not do so )."
This country didn't even have a formal federal budget system until The General Accounting Act of 1921 was passed. It was the General Accounting Act of 1921 that first required the President to submit a budget. There were 28 presidents prior to 1921. Want to take another guess?
factsforyou said, "Solyndra, Fast and Firious, etc."
You call that a verified fact?
factsforyou said, "Gas prices have doubled."
Not from the $4.21 per gallon they hit under George W. Bush.
Oct 21, 2012 at 11:13 p.m.
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Kilgore- why would you believe a "long time businessman" over statistics"? They aren't always that brightest stars in the sky and something tells me you are a little bit partisan.
Oct 21, 2012 at 10:44 p.m.
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factsforyou joined four days ago and posts exclusively on republican talking points.
Oct 21, 2012 at 9:18 p.m.
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LISTEN: as a long time businessman in Rock County just told me, Nothing is getting better. Just press releases for The One prior to the election. Believe what you see not the media.
Oct 21, 2012 at 8:07 p.m.
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So who will take credit for the improving economy? Walker and his policies? Or Obama and his. Very surprised the gazette and 5.0 would even put out a positive analysis with the election so close.
Oct 21, 2012 at 5:04 p.m.
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It's working!
Oct 21, 2012 at 4:39 p.m.
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I believe it should be possible to research at least the year-over-year figures going back to January 2007 or 2008, prior to the GM closing and the financial crisis; measuring just from the trough, so to speak, only offers part of the picture.
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