Predicting a Packer victory

By GREG PECK ( Contact )   Thursday, January 20, 2011 - 10:11 a.m.

OK, it's getting close. Time to start getting taped up, put on those game faces and find that mouth guard.

Or, to pick sides in the most important game ever in the greatest pro football rivalry, the Green Bay Packers vs. the Chicago Bears.

Here's why the Bears might win: Devin Hester leads great special teams. Julius Peppers leads a stout defense. Quarterback Jay Cutler has been playing well. Home-field advantage and a sloppy field could neutralize Packer QB Aaron Rodgers, who, as we saw last week, seems to be at his best indoors. The Bears have been lucky all season. The same refs who blew 19 whistles against the Pack when Green Bay lost in Chicago earlier this year will be officiating Sunday.

Here's why I think the Packers should win: They're battle tested, having won the past four games to stay alive on this road to the Super Bowl. With superlative backups and savvy personnel moves, they seem to have overcome the rash of injuries that would have devastated most teams. They appear to be the team of destiny. Of the four teams remaining, Las Vegas oddsmakers favor the Pack to win the Super Bowl. Rodgers and cornerback Tramon Williams are playing with chips on their shoulders because of Pro Bowl snubs.

I don't see the runaway game that Packer fans enjoyed last week. My pick: Green Bay 24, Chicago 21.

What's your prediction, and why?

Greg Peck can be reached at (608) 755-8278 or gpeck@gazettextra.com. Or follow him on Twitter

reader COMMENTS
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(43)
jaf2
Jan 24, 2011 at 11:34 p.m.
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I know this is old news now, but...
"JVL - Al Harris wasn't ever on the IR for the Packers." [you are correct BeloitGuy. He was on (I believe) PUP. If he was on IR he would have been out for the season and GB would not have been forced to make a decision.]

"Beenthere - The Packers beat the Pats, the Bears did not. The Bears beat the Dolphins, the Packers did not. Both teams lost to Washington, Dallas, and Philadelphia." [not so much here---GB lost to the pats and beat Philadelphia--twice]

Also, consider these tidbits, in addition to the Detroit fiasco...
--In the 9 games between common opponents, the almighty Chicago defense outperformed GB's in exactly...1 game (shutout vs. Miami).
--GB had to play the then penthouse of the NFC in Atlanta; Chicago played the NFC's outhouse (Carolina).
--Did anyone notice that on Bulaga's false start penalty (on 4th down- right before the TD) they should have run off 10 seconds since it was inside 2 minutes left? (:56) That means in the way the rest of the game played out, time should have expired before Atlanta had the chance to kick the game-winning field goal.

None of that matters now. Anyone know where the Bears players are going to watch the Super Bowl from?

yomorgan
Jan 23, 2011 at 8:27 a.m.
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I THINK IT WILL BE PACKERS 24 BEARS 17... ITS STILL A WIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

yomorgan
Jan 23, 2011 at 8:23 a.m.
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GO PACK GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

truecitizen
Jan 22, 2011 at 1:35 a.m.
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I'M sure it will be pack 35 to Bears 17. Look for the Bears to play disorganized.

dtb
Jan 22, 2011 at 12:59 a.m.
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And lost to the Pats 31-27.

dtb
Jan 22, 2011 at 12:57 a.m.
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Beloitguy, Packers beat Dallas 45-7.

tbs123
Jan 22, 2011 at 12:41 a.m.
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http://marquettetribune.org/2011/01/18/s...

this is an article by my son, who writes for the Marquette Tribune at Marquette University. Enjoy.

BeloitGuy
Jan 21, 2011 at 10:50 p.m.
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JVL - Al Harris wasn't ever on the IR for the Packers. They had a choice to keep him and let him play or cut him. If they thought he was better than what they had, they would never have let him go.

Beenthere - The Packers beat the Pats, the Bears did not. The Bears beat the Dolphins, the Packers did not. Both teams lost to Washington, Dallas, and Philadelphia. Both teams beat everyone else in their division (except Green Bay to Detroit), the Bills and the Jets. Green Bay beat NYG while the Bears lost. Which means their common opponent record is....identical.

rpm4
Jan 21, 2011 at 4:54 p.m.
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Green Bay 27 V Chicago 17.... Mainly because of our defense and the way the offense has been clicking...

Stevelknievel
Jan 21, 2011 at 4:07 p.m.
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Packers 112-Bears 4. (One slow tear hits the ground in Kiln, Miss.)

jvldss
Jan 21, 2011 at 3:01 p.m.
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Beloitguy - Harris was on IR, due to injury, before being cut. Prior to that he was an all-pro corner. That was a big loss due to injury.
I never said Barnett "could hold Urlacher's jock", I was just using the comparison of losing two or three starting linebackers from the defense. Some of the Bears players I listed are better than their Packer counterparts and some are not. My point was the Packers have 15 players on IR including 7 starters and the Bears have been very lucky to not lose any starters this season.

Every team has a bad game or a few over the course of the season. The Pack looked terrible against Miami, Washington and Lions. The Bears played poorly against the Giants, Redskins and Patriots. And yet they meet Sunday for the NFC championship.

frogger
Jan 21, 2011 at 1:59 p.m.
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90210 on soap net. Cannot seem to get enough of those reruns. Then catch up on Cold Case on DVR.
HGTV- that is one station I prefer to yell at ! )

Jvlhomeowner
Jan 21, 2011 at 1:48 p.m.
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I predict there will be a winner, and a looser, and I will not care.
My TV will be set on Speed TV watching the Barrett - Jackson auto auctions.

BeenThereDoneThat
Jan 21, 2011 at 1:41 p.m.
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Look who's talking, BeloitGuy! Remind me again what the score was when the Bears played the Patriots? They lost by how many points? 29? How many points did the Packers to the Patriots by? 4?

Need I ask about common opponents like the Giants?

BeloitGuy
Jan 21, 2011 at 1:24 p.m.
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JVL - Al Harris is not on the IR....the Packers cut him. Nick Barnett couldn't hold Urlacher's jock. If you are suprised that Mark Tausher was injured, then you don't watch many Packer games.

The Packers can be very good, but they can also be very bad (see Miami Dolphins game this year).

copo9561
Jan 21, 2011 at 1:16 p.m.
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some of you packer fans talk like you actually play for the packers

frogger
Jan 21, 2011 at 11:37 a.m.
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Laws of probability say I will win the add e up!! Sorry this is my only concern.

badbart
Jan 21, 2011 at 10:59 a.m.
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Regardless.....I believe the Pittsburgh Steelers will win their 7th Championship!!!!!! I am going with the Green Bay Packers over the Chicago Bears 24-10. Cutler will choke under pressure as usual, guarenteed!

jvldss
Jan 21, 2011 at 10:21 a.m.
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The difference between fan bases is simple:
Bears fans - eternal pessimists.
Packers fans - eternal optimists.
Each annoying in their own way but get them together and watch out.

It is unbelievable that in 180 some meetings the two teams have only met twice in the playoffs...1941 and on Sunday. I hope it isn't another 60 years before the two teams meet in the playoffs because this week has been fun.

Go Pack!

jvldss
Jan 21, 2011 at 10:08 a.m.
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Where luck plays the biggest factor for the Bears is that they have been so healthy this year with absolutely no significant injuries. We saw how badly the Bears missed urlacher last season after he went out.
Imagine if the Bears had theses players on IR like the Packers do:
Urlacher (Barnett)
Olson (Finley)
Forte (Grant)
Tillman (Harris)
Webb (Tauscher)
Manning (Burnett/Bigby)
Harris (Jolly/Jenkins for several games)
Tinoisamoa (Jones, Poppinga, Zombo)
Their season may have been different. But, they stayed healthy the entire year and had a tremendous year in the process. I find it remarkable that the Pack made it this far. Anything can happen Sunday. It should be an awesome game.

BeenThereDoneThat
Jan 21, 2011 at 10:02 a.m.
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monroemom...same can be said about the Bears fans. I unfriended some of my facebook friends who are Bear fans because I got so tired of their endless drivel. I just want people to shut up and enjoy the game. Geesh!

My prediction: Packers 21, Bears 17.

BeloitGuy
Jan 21, 2011 at 9:39 a.m.
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Monroemom - The Bears do have some talent, but were the beneficiaries of a terrible rule against the Lions for a victory and played against 3rd string QB's numerous times this year.

The Packers are a better team top to bottom and have the best player on the field in Aaron Rodgers. That being said, I think the horseshoe rears it's head again for the Bears and somehow they pull out a 24-21 victory.

monroemom
Jan 21, 2011 at 9:21 a.m.
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Packerfan- You don't get to the Championship game on luck. Da Bears have to have some talent to have gotten this far. Same with the Packers. They are two evenly matched teams and in the end it will be the better team who wins. Whether its the Bears or the Pack. I think Packer fans need to stop the trash talk and just take it all in stride. My child was ridiculed all day at school for wearing a Bears tshirt. That is ridiculous! I am not predicting anything because it is too close to call, but I would never ridicule or talk trash talk to someone who is rooting for the opposing team.

jvldss
Jan 21, 2011 at 8:27 a.m.
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The Pack will win because of Capers and the defense.
The Pack has played 5 teams multiple times in 2010. The defense has given up less points in the second meeting in 4 of those five meetings.
The second time we played the Eagles the D gave up 4 less points.
The second time we played the Lions the D gave up 19 less points.
The second time we played the Bears the D gave up 17 less points.
The second time we played the Vikings the D gave up 21 less points.
The second time we played the Falcons the D allowed one more point but also scored 6 on Williams pick to avenge the loss earlier in the season.
Capers will have them ready!
Pack wins 20-13.

Northman
Jan 21, 2011 at 8:24 a.m.
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Da Coach says da Bears have da better team. Gotta go with Ditka on this one.

The things is, *both* teams are pretty darn good, and I just don't see any big numbers going onto the scoreboard. A tough, hard game, but the Bears come out on top!

cardtrader
Jan 21, 2011 at 8:02 a.m.
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Bears 27 Packers 10 , Bears Defense is going to come out with a chip on there shoulder and put pressure on Rodgers like he has not seen in 4 games, peppers is going to get a couple sacks, defense is going to cause rodgers to hurry up causing a couple picks, end result rodgers and the Cheese Kurds going home to watch the Super Bowl

packerfan
Jan 21, 2011 at 7:53 a.m.
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I Said it.. The Bears got lucky this season!!
1 soft schedule
2 three of their wins came by playing against 3rd string QBs
3 after further review.. Da Bears still suck!!
Packers 24 bears 10

cruiser
Jan 21, 2011 at 7:40 a.m.
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BEARS HAVE IT ALL WRAPPED UP WITH A BIG BLUE & ORANGE BOW

njaisinghani
Jan 20, 2011 at 10:33 p.m.
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Im a bit worried about the game. The packers came out over confident. The last time they won in the Divisional round it was a big margin and they came out and played a less than impressive game in cold weather and lost. Thats what we are looking at here. In week 16 the Packers won big and followed it with a not so impressive win in week 17. It is also the first playoff game this season where the Packers are favored - another potential boost to their already high confidences. The Bears are out to prove something and are going to play hard. If the Packers dont come out to play, this could be a disappointing game for Packer fans.

matthew516
Jan 20, 2011 at 6:01 p.m.
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Bears 17 Packers 13 The Packers had the same opportunity to win the division as the Bears did, yet, they DIDN'T! The Bears weren't "lucky", they were a good team, that's why the won the division. Are they as good as I'd like them to be, not even close. Are the Packers a better team on paper, probably. Doesn't change the fact that the Bears are the team to beat in the NFC and the road to the Super Bowl is through Chicago, NOT Green Bay!

packattack
Jan 20, 2011 at 5:58 p.m.
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Destiny rules the day! GB vs Jets in SuperBowl. GB 33 bears 14

sydhunt
Jan 20, 2011 at 2:28 p.m.
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20-13 da Bears! Defenses rule, but Special Teams and points off turnovers will account for half of the Bears total.

truecitizen
Jan 20, 2011 at 1:32 p.m.
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Pack 35, Bears 17. I think G.B will keep the Bears out of any real rythm and will continue to play solid. They seam to be able to move the ball at will even when it didn't give points. The Bears got lucky at the end of their last victory at their home, due to a drive they couldn't stop-turning into a midfield fumble. (Jones has improved much since then). I also predict Cutler with 2 interceptions and yes-Hester will fumble once. It is possible to see 2 or less G.B punts in this game (again) also! The Bears had alot of rushing yards against the Hawks last week, but only because they were way ahead. Not this week! Also, Green Bay will own the time of possession clock. G.B can play from behind (if even needed), where as the Bears will have difficulty doing that. G.B was behind twice last week in route to a blow out.

NVgrf
Jan 20, 2011 at 12:55 p.m.
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Pack - 24 DaBears - 17

jvldss
Jan 20, 2011 at 12:35 p.m.
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Pack 20 Bears 13 in an old fashioned defensive slobberknocker...if that idiot McAulay loses his whistle and lets the two teams play.

johndenver
Jan 20, 2011 at 11:56 a.m.
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****First

johndenver
Jan 20, 2011 at 11:56 a.m.
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Fist off....the referee (the guy with the white hat who speaks to the crowd) is the same as when GB had all the penalties. The rest of his crew is not the same as they use "all-star" crews at this point. But anyway....Pack 23 Chicago 15

tommyjoe
Jan 20, 2011 at 11:28 a.m.
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Take it tu da bank! Based on the focus level I see in player interviews and the fact that 22 of the current packers were there after losing to the giants to go to the superbowl gives me a comfort level. Forget homefield, forget cold weather,forget the field, rest assure the pack is going to SUPERBOWL. Talent is second this time. Heart is numeral ONE.
PACK 34 bears 24.

garyprimer
Jan 20, 2011 at 11:27 a.m.
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Are WE gonna win?

futurerichguy
Jan 20, 2011 at 10:44 a.m.
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Da Pake 400 tousand, da Beeeers zero.

sweetness4u4
Jan 20, 2011 at 10:31 a.m.
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bears 27 gb 14

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