A King's Ransom...Part III
Last week I posed a couple questions to some people whose names you would have recognized. I asked them all if they wanted to give me their opinion on who would sign Prince and for how much. I also asked what they thought the Brewers would offer and if they should even sign them.
One of the people I asked actually reminded me that he was the one lost soul in the entire country who thought the Brewers should have explored trading Prince at the trade deadline. I have no idea why. No point in waiting for his opinion, I guess.
I was hoping to post all of the thoughts in this blog but I guess the peeps I asked are a touch busier than I, and their answers weren't really the info I was looking for. Except for one.
As most of you know I have a partner in this blog. I do the writing and he does the editing. Mostly so I don't look like the semi-illiterate car guy that I've been portrayed as on T.V. My partner, also known as "The Bullpen" took the time to give me a great reply and so after a few of my thoughts, this blog is all him.
I will say that I think Prince is going to sign with either the Dodgers or the Angels for 7 years and $180 million. I think the Crew will offer him up to 6 years and $150 million. I really hope it's the Angels because I would hate to face Prince on a regular basis.
In my last post I mentioned that CC Sabathia signed with the Yankees for $20 million more than what the Crew offered him. Someone posted 'CC did not get $20 million more. It was simply an extra year on the contract that amounted to $20 million more.' I hope that line makes sense to some of you, because to me it contradicts itself. CC's $160 million contract was indeed $20 million more than the Crew offered and that is what will happen with Prince. The annual money will be similar, but it's that 7th, or even 8th year that will get the deal because it's GUARANTEED money.
Enough of my thoughts...onto what "The Bullpen" has to say...
Estimated Brewers offer: 6 years, $150 million ($25 million/year)
Estimated Cubs offer: 8 years, $210 million ($26.25 million/year)
Comments: It breaks my heart to write this, but I truly believe Prince Fielder will begin the 2012 Major League Baseball season in a Chicago Cubs uniform. I'll get to the Cubs and why they will go all-out to sign Fielder in a bit, but first allow me to frame the story appropriately.
I do not believe Prince is "greedy," as some fans will believe, no matter what . However, anyone who knows anything about Prince's life is well aware of his father, Cecil, himself a former MLB slugger who played for the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees, among others. Prince grew up in major-league clubhouses, providing him with an up-close view of how ballplayers go about their business. Because his father had experience with such matters, Prince allowed his father to help negotiate Prince's first contract upon being drafted by the Brewers.
Anyone who knows this story also probably knows about Cecil Fielder's gambling problems, which eventually led him to bankruptcy and stripped him of the nearly $50 million in salary he collected during his MLB career.
Cecil's financial troubles reportedly caused hardship for Prince's mother and siblings, who were left with little income and no medical insurance. Prince cut ties with his father over the matter, and while there have been few occasions when he has spoken publicly about the rift, Prince's comments and demeanor during these interviews indicate there still are a lot of hard feelings there.
So why do I bring this up as Prince is on the verge of signing a mega-million-dollar contract? Because I believe the whole situation has caused Prince to be very protective of his family, and drives him to one-up his old man in everything he does. Example: Cecil's career-best for home runs in a season was 51; in 2007 Prince hit 50, and you could tell during every at-bat that he was swinging for the fences, trying to top his old man. He wants to obliterate his dad's numbers -- on the field as well as salary. He was later quoted as saying, "I don't mind people comparing me to him but I'm a completely different player. One day I want people to mention my name and not have to mention his."
I believe the situation with his father also drives Prince to make as much money as he possibly can, perhaps as a way to feel secure and to show his wife and children that he won't make the same mistakes as his father. These are just guesses, mind you, but when you think about it, it makes sense.
Which brings us to the hated Chicago Cubs. There are several reasons why this will happen, and you don't have to be a genius to figure them out:
-- Prince is a huge talent, and the biggest name on the free-agent list who won't be re-signing with his former club.
-- The Cubs need to turn things around, and fast.
-- New Cubs President Theo Epstein is looking to make a big splash. Gotta rejuvenate a fan base that perhaps has finally grown tired of being the perpetual loser.
-- The Cubs don't have a franchise player at this point. They have a lot of bad paper (Soriano, Zambrano, etc.) and a couple nice young pieces, but not an Ernie Banks, Ron Santo or Sammy Sosa-type player and personality.
-- The Cubs have the dough, and have been known to outbid the competition to get what they want. (See: Soriano, Alfonso)
-- Prince wants to be "The Man" somewhere. If he stayed in Milwaukee he would always have to share the spotlight with Ryan Braun. Something tells me those guys would be like oil and water co-existing like that, competing for alpha dog status.
As much as I hate to say it, I think they go together hand and glove. And I think that Prince -- under the strong advice of his agent -- will take the largest overall deal because, well, you just don't leave a GUARANTEED $40-60 million on the table when this is your one shot. You just don't. I wouldn't. You wouldn't. And let's not fool ourselves into thinking otherwise.
If the situation plays out this way there are many, including my good friend Mr. Thompson, who will probably label Prince as greedy. I don't agree with that assessment, but that's just me. I'm an optimist, so if it happens we also can look forward to the next eight years of Cubs-Brewers (Fielder vs. Braun) games ...
Any guesses on who Prince will sign with and for how much??
Tim Thompson is a carsalesman, farmer, and huge fan of the Milwaukee Brewers. He lives in Milton area with his wife and two kids. Tim is a community blogger and is not a part of The Gazette staff. His opinion is not necessarily that of the The Gazette staff or management.
Nov 10, 2011 at 1:27 p.m.
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If I am Mark Attanasio I wouldn’t go too deep into my pockets to bring back Fielder. He is an exceptional player, but the Brewers already have one in Braun that you can build your franchise off of. Milwaukee is never going to win an arms race with the large market teams. You can always give it a go, but ultimately you are going to reach too far into your pockets and even then cross your fingers for a home town discount (Scott Boars really loves those).
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I was one of “those people” that had hoped Milwaukee would have traded Prince and at least received some compensation for him (whether it was last off season or even during the season). This looks, smells, and feels like CC Sabathia all over again. Though more people will be heart broken as Prince was a home grown talent. I think many of the Brewers faithful realize that Prince likely isn’t coming back.
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I still say 2012 Yankees’ DH, but I completely overlooked the Rangers. Rangers are my new #2 guess for Prince. A very close #2.
Nov 9, 2011 at 7:22 p.m.
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One name is fine kio. I'm sure most peeps know is one in the same;) I understand yo point sir. If he signs a one year contract in year 7 for 50 mill then he made more dough in 7 years. He did it w 2 contracts however, which I think means that the 160 contract is worth 20 mill more than the 140;-) I've seen u post enough to know yer knowledgable on such topicss an its def a 1st I've heard those teams mentioned. Baltimore would be kewl cuz I'd love to see him as a Yankee killer!!
Nov 9, 2011 at 8 a.m.
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I believe Prince wants to play 1st still..so an American League team wanting to put him at DH may not be what he is looking for. Clint Barmes at shortstop would be nice as well but Reyes would far outperform anyone else at that position. I would love to have Prince back but it scares me to give that much money to one player. Upgrade 3rd and SS and we should be good to go for next year.
Nov 9, 2011 at 2:17 a.m.
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TT/Kid:
It's nothing hypothetical what so ever. It's simply how modern accounting is done. You simply are making an invalid comparison. Your just assuming the FMV will be zero in the 7th year, when the reality is you don't know that, nor does anyone. his FMV may be more then $20 million in his 7th year. Your point taken, he could get injured-done, and then it was obviously a great thing, and would indeed amount to $20 million more. The total $$$ figure is simply not an apple to apple comparison. It's nothing tricky, or shady what so ever. It's simple accounting. You can only make educated guesses on market value in the future. Your "$20 million more" is ASSUMING his market value will be zero in year 7. That is possible, but it's also possible it could be more then $20 million. Guaranteed $$ is not always a good thing, especially if your market value goes up.
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That's my only point, not to be redundant.
As far as where Prince ends up.
If I were a betting man (haha) I'll take the long shot here, and I'll wager on Washington, and my 2nd choice would be another long shot; in Baltimore. You heard it here 1st ;-)
Nov 8, 2011 at 7:13 p.m.
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I believe that the Brewers will not sign Fielder, but the World Champs will sign Albert. I am really not that convinced on Fielder's committment after I saw him laughing and goofing around in the dugout when they were about to lose one of the Series games against the Cards. As LaRussa said, "I want guys with heart, not just stick."
Go World Champion Cards in 2012.
Nov 8, 2011 at 4:50 p.m.
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Ha. Nice post Kenny. Who wouldnt love to have Reyes in uni at SS?? I fear his hammy history and I still think hes a bad word for pulling himself out of the game to all but secure the batting title. 1st place team or last place team that thought wouldnt even cross Braun or Princes mind.
Nov 8, 2011 at 4:09 p.m.
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Badgerlvr – Exactly why you should probably bite your tongue or maybe post on another blog; this one is obviously not for you. Save “Peace & Glove” for those of us that enjoy escaping “reality” once and a while and acting out hypothetical, million dollar decisions as if our last names were Attanasio or Steinbrenner.
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Back to “fantasy” baseball; Reyes as a Brewer would be awesome…and probably a cheaper option than Fielder. RISP 40% - 50% of the time for Braun; yes please. I would take Michael Cuddyer (not too expensive) as a Fielder fill in too.
Nov 8, 2011 at 2:45 p.m.
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I hope you are correct volsmanning. Reyes is the buzz for the Crew on twitter the last couple days. I'd be more than ok with a downgrade at first to get an upgrade at SS.
Nov 8, 2011 at 2:43 p.m.
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*Gotta rejuvenate a fan base that perhaps has finally grown tired of being the perpetual loser.*
While they haven't won the World Series in over 100 years, they have not been perpetual losers as of late. Indeed, the semi-regular playoff appearances of the past 15 years have rendered the Cubs fans very impatient rather than complacent dolts who simply fill the bleachers come wins or losses.
Nov 8, 2011 at 2:33 p.m.
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Prince will sign with the Miami Marlins to open their new ballpark with a bang. Brewers will sign Jose Reyes to play shortstop. Reyes is a risky signing but worth the money in my opinion.
Nov 8, 2011 at 12:43 p.m.
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kennybaby: That's not being negative, that's being a realist.
Nov 8, 2011 at 8:03 a.m.
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Bdgerlvr - Perhaps you should skip Tim Thompson's blog and go straight to the one penned by Debbie Downer. Negative Nancy also writes one that would be right in your "ballpark."
Nov 8, 2011 at 7:28 a.m.
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It's really tough to be concerned about $25M per year when much of the country is worried they have enough money to pay for a $50 fill-up.
Nov 8, 2011 at 2:36 a.m.
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No offense Kio, but I took nothing out of context. I didn't forget your point about it being more years. It's in there. Now you are adding a bunch of hypotheticals. Lets play the hypothetical game. If CC gets hurt after year 1, then did he sign a contract for $20 million more?? My original point was simple enough to understand. You can play the word game and say he didnt sign for $20 mill more, but it 'amounted' to $20 mill more but the bottom line is he signed a contract with the Yanks for $160 mill an the crew offered him $140 mill. Next time I'll let the experts know if us novices need a few hypotheticals on why that contract isn't really worth $20 million more...;)
Nov 8, 2011 at 1:49 a.m.
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TT:
Thanks for taking my other thread out of context.
I ADDED in the statement that the $$$'s PER YEAR were about the same.
You conveniently forgot to add that part!
Sure it's $20 million extra of guaranteed $$, and PERHAPS $20 more, but you can not say that for certain. Say CC was so dominant that after that after his 6 year deal, he was signed to a one year deal after that was for $30 million. Or say the market values went up to such extremes (like they did in the 90's) that his FMV was $50 a year...You simply don't know what is the better deal until the 7 years are up. You can't judge market value in the future, only make educated guesses on them. If I sign a contract to work some place, and it's guaranteed, that is not always a good thing. If my fair market value increases, and I'm locked in a guaranteed deal, it's in reality a very BAD thing.
Next time I'll try my hardest to explain obvious financial things better to some of you novices! ;-)
Nov 7, 2011 at 10:24 p.m.
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The Yankees definitely don't need him, but I still see them going after him...even if he would primarily DH. The Yankees will have either Prince or Pujols next year. They have no qualms hoarding talent.
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Honestly the only NL team that I see Prince signing with is the Brewers.
Nov 7, 2011 at 7:12 p.m.
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good input
kenny: what about texiera?? he's the yanks 1st baseman, and I believe he signed an 8 year contract. I REALLY don't see even the yanks signing a DH to that kind of money.
I'm in complete agreement w rusty on the Cub thing. I don't see them taking the risk for a long term contract. I do not agree however with the annual money. I'd bet a dollar that prince will be making $25 million/year starting next year. He made over $15 million this year thanx to arbitration. Free market?? Even the crew will be in at about $25 mill/year. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.
Nov 7, 2011 at 4:57 p.m.
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I don’t (want to) see Fielder as a Cub. The Cubs are great at one thing; signing terrible long-term deals. I think we are talking about the 2012 DH/1B of the New York Yankees. I just don’t see an NL team spending what his salary will demand on a sub-par defensive first baseman. Here are my best guesses:
1) Yankees – 6 year $160 million; $30 million player option for 7th year.
2) Angels – 8 year $200 million
3) Brewers – 8 year $175 million
Nov 7, 2011 at 2:22 p.m.
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The Brewers will not be able to sign Prince. The 2011 World Series Champion St. Louis Cardinals will not be able to sign Albert. The difference is that the Cardinals will still find a way to win and be successful(i.e. NL Pennants and World Series Championships). The Brewers,like the Cubs, will continue to find ways to ultimately disappoint their fans (at least the sober ones) for many,many years to come.
Nov 7, 2011 at 2:12 p.m.
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I too do not think Milwaukee will sign him but I WOULD hate to play against him if he goes to the cubs. I have a dream that JUST ONCE a player would say NO to the extra money and say I want to stay with the Brewers!!!! I said it is a dream. I agree with Tim que sera sera.
Nov 7, 2011 at 1:31 p.m.
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oldtimer: I don't think he is going to be great. HE IS GREAT. Will he be great for a 6 or 7 year contract?? If I knew that I'd use my powers for more than typing random thoughts here:) As far as MKE signing him...I nothing that thought. I really have no opinion on whether they should or should not, que sera sera.
Nov 7, 2011 at 1:27 p.m.
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TT who cares as long as Milw does NOT sign him, You think he is going to be so great? just wait and see what happens next year.
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